Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $167,156$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164,430.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 58.3)}}\) (asimptote \(164,430.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,134$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,591.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,591.5\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,281$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,644$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(168 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,082.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,082.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $244$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{313.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(313.0\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,123$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $168,340$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,591.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(159,591.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,648$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(907 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,485.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,485.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,292$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,562$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,722.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(16,722.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $291$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(72.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(280.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,245$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $37,642$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(836 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,323.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 84.8)}}\) (asimptote \(46,323.3\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $274$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(23.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{274.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(274.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,031$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $95,748$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,197.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.9)}}\) (asimptote \(115,197.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $642$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(40.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,594.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 80.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,594.1\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,490$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,495$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(754 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,902.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(96,902.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $49$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,511$ on 2020-06-05
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,086$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(63.6 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $72$ on 2020-06-05
Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,563$ on 2020-06-05