Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Kuwait
  • Turkey
  • Israel
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Qatar
  • Oman
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Taiwan*
  • Thailand
  • Japan
  • Georgia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $167,156$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164,430.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 58.3)}}\) (asimptote \(164,430.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,134$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,591.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(7,591.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,281$ on 2020-06-05

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,644$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(168 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,082.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,082.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $244$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(7.97 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{313.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 50.9)}}\) (asimptote \(313.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,123$ on 2020-06-05

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $168,340$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,591.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(159,591.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,648$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(907 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,485.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,485.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,292$ on 2020-06-05

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,562$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,722.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(16,722.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $291$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(72.5 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(280.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,245$ on 2020-06-05

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,642$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(836 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,323.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 84.8)}}\) (asimptote \(46,323.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $274$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(23.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{274.3}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(274.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,031$ on 2020-06-05

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $95,748$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,197.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 67.9)}}\) (asimptote \(115,197.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $642$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(40.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,594.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 80.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,594.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,490$ on 2020-06-05

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,495$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(754 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,902.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(96,902.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $49$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,511$ on 2020-06-05

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,086$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(63.6 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $72$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.8 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,563$ on 2020-06-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Taiwan* recovered 98%
Thailand recovered 95%
Japan recovered 91%
Turkey recovered 63%
Georgia recovered 61%
Singapore recovered 38%
Qatar recovered 31%
Kuwait recovered 23%
Tajikistan recovered 3%

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $443$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{436.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(436.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-06-05

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-06-05

Thailand⮸

Population $69,799,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,102$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,002.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 19.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,002.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(30.9 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.1}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 10.8)}}\) (asimptote \(56.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73$ on 2020-06-05

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,958$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(2.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,676.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,676.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $916$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(78.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{961.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(961.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,117$ on 2020-06-05

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $805$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(110 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{785.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 47.5)}}\) (asimptote \(785.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-05

Best fit exponential: \(3.55 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(13.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $142$ on 2020-06-05